Heading into Memorial Day Weekend seems like a great time to get caught up on those good and bad surprises. Let's take a quick look at betting unit performance through Wednesday's games...
Houston +12 units
Kansas City +11 units
St. Louis +11 units
Minnesota +10 units
St. Louis is the only team in that mix that was supposed to win its division this year. In a way, they're the most impressive of the bunch because they've been exceeding the highest preliminary expectations. Minnesota is the single biggest surprise because they were supposed to be an absolute doormat. I can't recall a season where the numbers crunchers misread so many different teams. Houston and Kansas City have been getting more line respect lately. But, you could still argue that the numbers don't reflect this year's level of performance.
That's something you should really keep an eye on. It's possible that these teams will continue squeezing out line value. That's getting harder for the first three because of media coverage. As the NBA winds down...the mainstream media is starting to pay more attention to what's been happening in Houston and Kansas City. Though, they still want to talk about the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs most of the time!
Moving forward....the best "June" surprises are likely to be slow starters that the market has given up on. Let's take a quick look at the "bad" early surprises and see if there are any nominees for that line of thinking...
Oakland -19 units
Cleveland -11 units
Milwaukee -9 units
Pittsburgh -7 units
Toronto -7 units
Seattle -7 units
Colorado -7 units
Wow...a lot of teams down seven units or worse, including projected contenders in a few divisions. The Oakland collapse is mind-boggling. Is Moneyball going bankrupt?! They have a poor defense, and it's killing their pitching. Hopefully you've been taking advantage all season because the trend became apparent early.
Can any of those teams turn it around? I'm not going to give away any secrets because I have to protect client plays going forward. I do have my eye on two of those teams in terms of potential turnarounds. There's a lot of ebb and flow during a baseball season. One mistake that many novices make is that they assume early stats will hold up through the season. This is a sport of constant adjustment. It's better to assume that at least a few slow starters will make changes that get things moving in the right direction.
Oh, we can't forget about Over/Unders!
Oakland 28-12-2 to the Over
Washington 26-14-1 to the Over
San Diego 25-15-1 to the Over
Atlanta 23-14-2 to the Over
LA Dodgers 23-14-2 to the Over
Miami 24-16-2 to the Over
That makes it look like steroids are back! There are a lot of teams who are skewing Under...just not to the extremes we're seeing with that group of Over teams.
The keys to that group are
*The pitching was supposed to be great, and hasn't been...or
*The offenses were supposed to be mediocre or worse, but have done well...or
Oakland and San Diego have had disappointing bullpens, which help create Overs because that causes the need for more runs. Games that mind have ended 4-2 or 4-3 are now ending around 6-5 for those teams.
A lesson from all of today's numbers is that the market can be very slow to react to surprises. If oddsmakers see Oakland as a contender that's likely to win low scoring games...it takes FOREVER for them to get out of that mindset. If you bet "opponent and Over" in all Oakland games this season, you'd be up about 34 units! Oakland just passed the 40 game mark in the standings.
With basketball and hockey starting to wind down, many of you are ready to get serious about Major League Baseball betting. You can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours. I have great packages that take you through the end of the NBA Playoffs in June, or baseball's All-Star Break in July. I'm THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because I win in all sports year round!
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