There are different ways to measure surprises. If you just look at the market, then the St. Louis Cardinals are the biggest "good" surprise of the season. Backers are up about 20 units this season because the Redbirds have played so much better than the market expected. Magnifying this reality, the Cards lost ace pitcher Adam Wainwright early in the season! What a great job this team is doing. They weren't supposed to be this good.
But, to WAYNE ALLYN ROOT, it's not particularly earth-shattering that a team everyone knew would be a championship contender is playing great. St. Louis was supposed to win its division. They're extremely likely to win the division everyone had assumed they'd win. What's the surprise in that?!
To me, the biggest "good" surprise that "crossed the threshold" so to speak was the Houston Astros. They reached game #81 on pace to win 94 this season. This from a team that was projected to win only 76 games according to March market projections. So...a team that was supposed to be an also-ran that was still at least a year away from "arriving" instead arrived right away! The team continues to play at a very high level, as you saw in their series sweep of the Kansas City Royals this week.
(What about Kansas City you might be asking? The Royals have been a big market surprise too, because all the "experts" thought they'd fall back to earth. But, how can the fact that the defending league champion is playing well really be a surprise? For me, it's still the Astros.)
The biggest "bad" surprise to me has been the Boston Red Sox. It's true that both the Red Sox and A's have been down at the bottom of the AL this season in a way that's shocked many. But, Oakland was supposed to be a .500 caliber team, while the March markets were penciling in Boston for about 86 wins and the East Division crown. Remember how acquiring a "panda" supposedly put the Red Sox over the top? They look like they're going to finish last. And, the braintrust that helped build their recent championships are now working for other teams.
I guess I have to mention Philadelphia here. On the one hand, they were supposed to be the worst team in baseball...and they ARE! That's not a major surprise. But, their current pace has them reaching the mid 50's in victories off a full season projection around 69. They turned themselves into an expansion team. It wasn't supposed to get this bad.
What about coming surprises for the second half of the season? I'm not going to tip my hand here in a web article. I need to protect the market for my clients. But, I want you to be aware that baseball history is FULL of stories about teams really catching fire in the second half of the season. The Oakland A's used to do that almost annually when Billy Beane was first feeling his oats.
Somebody on pace for about a 41-40 record in the first half of the season will likely go about 50-31 in the second half of the season. At least one of the teams in that deep AL Wildcard hunt could explode and go something like 54-27 the rest of the way. And, we may even have a first half "loser" finally gets its ducks in a row and start playing well... at least enough for a 45-36 type run that would earn several units at value prices.
How do you find these teams?
*Read the injury reports and see which teams are "getting healthy"
*Read the stats to see which decent teams have had very bad luck statistically
*Read local media to see which teams are gelling chemistry-wise after a rocky start
*Study recent bullpen performance to see which teams are locking down the middle innings
*Study schedules to see which teams have long friendly stretches during the second half
I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas because I'm always planning ahead. You have to study past surprises to learn how to spot future surprises. I've been helping you do that for years here in my web articles, and will continue you to do so because I WANT YOU TO WIN!
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Were you disappointed with your first half baseball betting performance? Maybe YOU can become the surprise story of the summer by crossing the threshold to become a big winner. It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!...