Win With Wayne Root

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

INTERESTING ACTION AROUND KEY NUMBERS
ON FIRST BIG COLLEGE SATURDAY

I had originally planned to focus mostly on the big movers of the week in today's article. But, we're seeing a few games hovering around key numbers in a way that could prove important on game day when more money hits the sportsbooks. So, I'm going to start with a quick review of how to 'read' those games, then I'll talk about a few notable moves.

Here are the rules you need to know around the key numbers of 3, 7, 10, and to a lesser extent 14, 17, and 21:

*If the line is a half a point BELOW the threshold and holding...then the sharps like the underdog...and they like the underdog pretty big. If you see 'home favorite -2.5,' and the line hasn't moved...then sharps like the underdog to pretty much win outright, and oddsmakers are taking a position against the public. The public loves laying 2.5 with favorites because they figure a last second field goal will bail them out. If the line isn't moving from that public money, here's a tug of war...and you'll be better off on the dog more often than not.

Same thing if you see 6.5, 9.5, etc. The public is a sucker for favorites just below a key number. If only public money was involved, then the lines would fly to 3.5, 7.5, and 10.5. They're NOT flying! That tells you smart money is on the other side holding the line in place.

*If the line is a half a point ABOVE the threshold and holding...then the sharps like the favorite. Had they loved the dog, that line would have plummeted in an instant. No way an underdog stays at +3.5 of the sharps love them. Sharps are on the favorite, and oddsmakers are hoping squares will take the bait and put the key number 'in their favor' by betting an underdog at +3.5, +7.4, +14.5, whatever.

The tug of war is on the other side of the key number here. But, it's just as meaningful. Oddsmakers are taking a position with the sharps on the favorite if you see a line holding steady one half point above a critical number.

Field goal games that could influence on game day: Connecticut/Michigan, Kentucky/Louisville, Washington/BYU, Cincinnati/Fresno State, and possibly UCLA/Kansas State depending on late developments.

Okay, let's briefly run through some other notes...

BIG MOVES ON BIG FAVORITES

We've seen some big moves on big name programs laying points to perceived pushovers. The public doesn't bet early, and typically doesn't influence Labor Day Weekend lines as much as other weeks...so these are sharps betting on blowouts (with the possibility of buying some back on game day to shoot at middles).

MICHIGAN STATE has moved from -20 up to -24 at home against Western Michigan. Support stopped at 24...but was very strong up to that number.

OKLAHOMA moved from -28.5 to -34 at home against Utah State. Note that the opener was just above a key number...but money came in so strong from sharps oddsmakers had to keep lifting it. The public wasn't there to play tough of war. Sharps expect OU to make a statement about getting back into the national championship race.

WISCONSIN moved from -17 up to -20.5 on the road at UNLV. Many sharps will attend that game in person because it's rare to get a BCS conference team visiting the city. Some crazy stuff happened on a prior Wisconsin visit that some of you may remember. Support here for the physical visitor from the Big 10...though that support stopped just short of the key number of 21. Sportsbooks don't want to set up a 17-21 middle unless they absolutely have to take the risk. There are some sharps ready to step in on the dog even if they didn't bet the favorite at that high price too.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM MARQUEE TV GAMES

NOTRE DAME opened at -10 and went up to -11. Had the public been actively involved this week, that 11 would have moved higher I believe. The public likes betting Notre Dame, and they have respect for the new coach. We may see more action on game day when the locals pop in to place their bets.

LOUISVILLE opened at +5.5 vs. Kentucky, but got bet all the way down to +3. This is one of the games at the critical number of three I mentioned earlier. Sharps really liked the dog here at the higher numbers. Support stopped right at the field goal.

TCU opened at -11 vs. Oregon State in their TV game set for the new Cowboys stadium. It rose up to 13.5 on strong support for the Horned Frogs. But, it stopped short of the key number of 14. I know several sharps who were looking to jump in big on Oregon State at +14 if they saw it. Some are taking +13.5 now figuring they've found the apex. So, TCU was the sharp side at -11...but Oregon State may end up being the game day sharp side at +13.5 or +13 once the Wise Guys who liked the Pac 10 team step in.